It is for the population of the utmost importance that it becomes aware of the
alarming condition on Java, where over-population already now works
disorganizing and in the future must give rise to shaking events.
The knowledge about the laws which control the population increase is for the
population of countries like Java of an imperative necessity.
(According to M.C. Kerkkamp, 1908).
The rapid growth of the population of Java.
At a closer consideration of the cause of death prevailing in the age groups of infants, toddlers and schoolchildren, which are responsible for about 60% of all deaths among the population in the D.I.Jogjakarta, from the limited preventive medical aspect of this problem it is not so difficult to suggest some measures, that might lower child mortality.
For instance: A systematic inoculation of all infants, toddlers and eventually schoolchildren against diphtheria, tetanus and typhoid fever and inoculation with B.C.G. Might – if repeated at regular intervals and on an extensive scale – decrease the mortality from these four diseases.
A good sewerage for dirt and faeces might influence the frequency of bacillary dysentery, amebiasis, typhoid fever, ascariasis, and hookworminfection.
A systematic fight against malaria might bring down the slight influence of this disease on child mortality.
All this might have some results, if it were not for the fact that the inoculations as well as the extension of the sewerage in the town and the installation of suitable latrines in the villages for the time being is almost impossible. The high cost can not be borne by the population itself. However it is not the financial side of the problem only, that is so important. In the period 1927 – 1935 the Hygienic Progaganda Service was very active to promote the building and the right use of latrines by the population. In the course of the years during which this service was busy carrying on propaganda, giving information, causing latrines to be built and controlling them, the number of latrines that came in use has risen to 70,000 in 1935, especially in Bantul and Kulon Progo. The cost of these activities however were very high and were mostly born by the government. It proved to be necessary for their upholding that these latrines remained under the continuous control of this service. After the decrease and discontinuance of this control-activity it appeared that the use of latrines had not been sufficiently taken over by the population in their life-habits. In this way the effect of this propaganda of many years standing has been lost. This experience gained at high cost leaves the hopes, that an eventual repetition would be more succesfull for the present very small. Apparently, there is in the rural areas no need of a change in the age-long habits of life in this respect, which have been taken over from generation to generation. That which had been forced upon the people at first by propaganda, later on was shaken off as a matter of course, because a real assimilation of this hygienic habit had been out of question.
Child mortality as we have been able to study it in the course of a number of six years in the region of D.I. Jogjakarta is a social-medical problem. It is evident that an inadequate and deficient diet is the principal factor in this high mortality. It is true that ultimately many starved infants and toddlers in their last days or weeks of life come also under the eyes of pediatricians and in this way they are confronted with it almost daily. The physician active in curative medical work mostly functions as an onlooker on only the last act of this tragedy of gradual starvation. The circumstance that a mild and moderate dystrophia in young children is such a normal phenomenon in these regions, that the mothers find it worth while to have her children examined by a physician only in an extreme condition of malnutrition. While the social-economic aspects of this social-medical problem of child mortality are more important than the curative medical aspects we will direct our attention to the social-economic aspects. The curative and preventive medical aspects of the problem of child mortality interesting as these may be, for its solution hardly make a contribution. What value should be attached to all sorts of measures for the fight against infectious disease, if for the survivors not even the primary necessaries of life can be provided?
It is impossible to fight this child mortality, taking your starting point in the offering of medical treatment to the sick child.
What sense has it to fight diphtheria in infants and toddlers if the much more important cause of death: protein-calorie malnutrition gets ever more favourable circumstances to develop and to make ever more victims? As all the measures in fighting infectious diseases receive any sense only after the problems have been solved lying around the nutrition of infants, children and adults, we leave these measures out of consideration, as being not yet to the point.
In the course of the years while looking upon the enormous stream of starved little children that passed our examination-table and who were accompanied by parents from whose looks you could read their poverty, every now and then the passage of Malthus came in mind:
“A human being, born on the already totally occupied earth has, when his family is not able to support him and society cannot use his labour, not the least claim to livelihood. He is redundant on this earth. On the table of nature no place is laid for him. Nature directs him to disappear and she herself takes care of the execution of this sentence”.
Malthus himself dropped this passage in later editions. It is right that he did so. To suggest that the fault lies with the children, who for that reason should be condemned, is not right. Rather is it so that the parents generate children for whom they cannot even procure the most necessary things for a minimum existence in this poor and overcrowded Java, and therefore these children will die from starvation. To direct our attention to the circumstances among which the parents of these malnutrition-patients live is what will be done in the rest of this chapter and in the next chapters.
We limit ourselves to the following aspects of this problem: to wit
- The growth of the population in D.I. Jogjakarta and in Java.
- The possibilities for an amelioration in the agricultural field.
- Transmigration as a measure to relieve the population pressure.
- Industrialization, its hope and expectation.
- Responsible parenthood and birthrate.
Population increase.
From before 1920 only few dependable data appeared to be known regarding the number of inhabitants in the D.I. Jogjakarta. The oldest figure in respect to the number of inhabitants in the D.I. Jogjakarta dates back from 1831. however in 1831 the region was not identical with the present D.I. Jogjakarta. In the Sultanate at that time there were namely 3 enclaves belonging to the principalities of Surakarta and Mangkunagara. Nowadays these are included administratively in the D.I. Jogjakarta. The number of inhabitants in 1885 amounted to 496,163.
The dependability of this figure has been strongly doubted by Kerkkamp (1908), as at a more accurate census in 1890 the number of inhabitants in this region appeared to be 778,729. In these 5 years this would mean a population “increase” of 283,000 that is 56.9% of the population of 1885. Most probable this “increase” is due for the greater part to the greater accuracy of the census in 1890. All the figures concerning the total population before 1885 are therefore supposed to be under-estimated in a substantial degree. The figures about the numerical strength of the population in the D.I. Jogjakarta in the years 1920 , 1930 and 1955 have already been mentioned in chapter II. (table II – 1, 5), but for comparison all the figures concerning the numerical strength of the population of the D.I. Jogjakarta have been placed together in Table XII – 1.
Table XII – 1.
Summary of the growth of the Indonesian population in the D.I. Jogjakarta during the period 1831 – 1958.
Supposing that the growth of the population in this region did not differ considerably from the population increase increase in the entire island of Java, we want to trace the population increase on the basis of the existing data concerning the population in the entire island. Out of the agreements between the princes of Jogjakarta and Surakarta and the United East Indies company some data are known allowing of an estimation regarding the population of Java in 1755. In that year the state of Mataram was divided into two parts and the division was not marked by frontier lines, but arranged by the distribution of the families under the two princes. By summing up the number of families in the region of Central Java and the western part of East Java the number of families in this region in 1755 is known. To the Sultan of Jogjakarta were assigned 87,050 families in total and to the Sunan of Surakarta were assigned 87,450 families. If we suppose a family to have 6 persons, then there were according to this estimate amply 1 million inhabitants in these two principalities. If we suppose an equal number of inhabitants in the parts of Java outside these two principalities viz. West-Java and the eastern part of East-Java, then we estimate the population of the whole island of Java at about two million inhabitants in 1755. At later investigations the regions of West-Java and the eastern part of East-Java always proved to be less densely populated than the region of Central-Java.
An other estimation regarding the number of inhabitants of the island of Java is Engelhard’s estimate concerning the year 1802. He estimated the number of inhabitants in Java and Madura in 1802 at 3.5 million inhabitants. This estimate was mentioned in the eighth volume of the census 1930, pg. 9.
In connection with the introduction of a system of landrent T.S. Raffles had a census taken in Java and Madura in the year 1815. The outcome of this census was that 4,449,250 inhabitants were living in Java and Madura. As the intention of this census, viz. the levying of landrent, very probably had not the approval of the population concerned, we may suppose that this figure will have turned out to be below rather than above the real number of inhabitants.
In the first half of the nineteenth century Bleeker gathered data about the numerical strength of the population of Java. His estimate of the number of inhabitants is 9.4 million inhabitants in 1845. From 1880 every five years the data about the number of inhabitants of all regions of the island Java were collected. This collection of figures was connected with the revision of the forced labour, which also took place every 5 years till 1905. the figures concerning the numerical strength in the year 1920 and 1930 are the results of a well-prepared and accurate census. The figure concerning the year 1948 is the estimate of Scholte.
His estimate was based on the following suppositions:
- In the period 1930-1942 an annual population increase of 1.5%.
- In the year 1943 an annual population increase of 0.75%.
- In the year 1944,1947,1948 a constant population
- In the period 1945-1946 an annual population decrease of 1%.
Scholte’s estimate was accepted by the government.
The data about the numerical strength of the population of Java concerning the period 1815 till 1960 are collected in table XII-2.
Table XII – 2.
Summary of the numerical strength of the Indonesian population of Java during the period 1815-1859.
To this table we will make some notes. The figures concerning the period 1845 till 1920 differ in accuracy and completeness. The figures about the number of inhabitants in Java were considered by Scheltema (1926) and Keyfitz (1953) to be more dependable than those concerning the population of the other islands of Indonesia, while also the figures of the later censi were estimated to be more correct than those of the previous ones. During the later censi in the 20th century as a matter of fact there existed better prescriptions for the counters and sharper supervision than during the censi of the 2nd half of the 19th century. In the 2nd half of the 19th century every 5th year a census was taken which according to the experts of that time for large parts of Java answered to reasonable requirements. However De Meel (1951 remarked that the collection of the number of inhabitants which took place before 1905 were not satisfactory and do not even deserve the name of Census.
The figures concerning the populations of the principalities of Jogjakarta and Surakarta and of the island of Madura did not come up to simple demands and were considered independable. Most Probably the figures are therefore too low. De Waal, who in 1876 discussed these figures critically, gives for the censi of 1850, 1860 and 1875, which gave a number of inhabitants respectively of 6.5; 12 and 18 million in the island of Java and Madura, estimates which are lying 2 à 3 million higher than the figures of the census-results in those same years, viz. 12, 15 and 20 million inhabitants. In the increase appearing from these figures therefore a part is no real growth, but “accres” caused by an ever greater exactitude in the census. The figures after 1930 are no more than the results of the calculations made by Scholte and Keyfitz. Keyfitz started from the data of the 1930-census and from a supposed annual increase of 1.5% in the decade from 1930-1940 and in the years 1940 and 1941. In the war-period and during the Japanese occupation an d the ensuing years of revolution, Keyfitz (1953) took for the six-years period 1942-1947 an annual increase of +0.75%; 0%; -1%; 0%; and 0% respectively. For the period 1948-1950 he started from an annual increase of 4% and after 1950 he again took. 1.5% as a starting point for his calculation of the annual growth. In his calculations Keyfitz accepted almost the same figures about the population increase as Scholte concerning the period 1930-1948, Keyfitz made an estimate also for the years 1950-1958. In the period of 1937-1948 the population of Indonesia has, according to this calculation, increased with 9%, while the growth of the surrounding countries, viz. the Phillipines, Thailand and Malaya in this period amounted to 24%, 22% and 22% of the population, so that the estimation about the annual increase has been kept on the low side, all the more so because the Phillipines as well as Thailand have suffered from the Japanese occupation the same as Indonesia. The results of this calculation regarding the years 1940, 1950, and 1960 have also been mentioned in table XII-2, Keyfitz’ calculation was made with the intention to trace the minimum-figure for the population of Java, thus supposing a low annual increase in the computation. In a period of 145 years (1815-1960) the Javanese population has increased from about 5 to more than 56 million inhabitants, so this means at least a growth to eleven times the number of inhabitants in 1815. It is namely very probable that the real number of inhabitants in Java in 1960 is some millions higher than the noted estimate.
The growth of the population of Java runs very probably its course following a curve the shape of which is shown in fig. 29. This was demonstrated by Pearl, who found this growth-curve also for some other populations the growth of which he examined. The population growth of U.S.A. (1790-1918). Sweden (1750-1918). France (1800-1910). Germany (1820-1910) and Algeria (1856-1921) appeared to follow the same curve as the population growth of Java (1775-1920).
Fig. 29.
A population that lives on a given and limited surface as is a.o. the case with the population of Java has for the numerical strength of its population an upper limit. An upper limit fixed by the fact that the surface and available resources determine the means of subsistence.
This growth curve tends upwards very slowly in the beginning but gradually its rise grows steeper. In the last part of the curve the line be comes gradually horizontal. In the beginning the population increases, when expressed in absolute figures, only little but the increase constantly grows till its maximum.
Scheltema computed that the increase of the population of Java in absolute figures was greatest in the period 1885-1889 as far as the data he had available at the time permitted this computation.
After this point the increase becomes gradually smaller till the upper limit is reached. A population with a great numerical strength tends to slow down its increase. The proportional annual increase, expressed in percentage of the population of the former year, decreases from the beginning during the development of the population growth.
Based on the fact : that nearly all the waste land of Java which was available is in
cultivation.
- that the average landed property of the Javanese peasant, who is so fortunate to have some land, is very small.
- that extended areas of arable soil are damaged by erosion.
- that the development of new resources appeared to be not a simple matter.
we consider it very probable that the population of Java approaches or is already in the stage of gradually diminishing increase.
In his analyses of the population figures of Java concerning the period 1895-1900 Kerkkamp (1908) points to the difference of increase of the population living in densely and less densely populated areas. The increase of the population in the densely populated areas was always less rapid than in the less densely populated regions. This difference was very striking in unfavourable years when crop failure or epidemics occurred in several regions.
The difference of population increase of the population of Java and of the population of Aumatera, Kalimantan, Sulawesi and Nusa Tenggara during the period 1905-1930, points also to the relation between the density of population and rate of population increase. In this period the population of these other islands increased with 3.1-3.2%, while the population of the island of Java increased with 1.0-1.6%. (De Meel, 1951).
As it is almost impossible to know exactly what point of the curve corresponds with the demographic condition on Java today for lack of a sufficient number of dependable figures computations concerning the future are rather precarious. Pearl computed a maximum population of 50.7 million in the year 2,000. Scheltema computed a maximum population of 39.2 million in 1991 or 43.5 million in 2025 according to two different presuppositions. Both computations appeared to be wrong by the census figures of 1930.
It is very probable that the population growth will gradually diminish if the available means of subsistence remain unchanged.
In demographic terms this means that the crude death-rate will rise to come in balance with the constant high birth-rate. The death-rate will become the main regulator of the population-growth. In terms of human life we are afraid that this means disappointment, adversity. Sorrow, distress, poverty and hunger. A hard and difficult struggle for life for so many people is hidden behind this flatting curve.