The crude death-rate, the main regulator of population growth.
The number of deaths among a particular population is influenced by various factors, which are more precarious than those influencing the number of births. The most freakish factors are famine through failure of crops, acts of war, and epidemics such as smallpox, cholera, and influenza. Mostly these factors occur on a limited geographical scale, and have a limited duration, so that they have a temporary influence on mortality. “Regular mortality”, occurring under circumstances that we should call “normal” depends on factors that vary much less, such as:
a The endemic occurrence of a number of infectious diseases: dysentery, diphtheria,
ancylostomiasis, malaria, tuberculosis, and typhoid fever.
These diseases have a gradually wasting rather than an explosive effect such as
cholera and pestilence.
b The frequency of non-infectious diseases resulting in death.
c The availability of otherwise of nutritive foods for the whole population.
d The coming up of the conditions of life to the requirements of modern hygiene.
e The occurrence of a sufficient degree of the knowledge and insight mothers need
to feed their children properly and to care for them.
f The level of the perinatal death-rate.
g The degree to which a population is “medical minded”.
These factors influence the annual deaths, the number of which will have rather a constant character. As most of the above factors can be changed only gradually. The rapid growth of the Javanese population in the 19th and 20th century can only be understood by a lowering of the death-rate of the population during this period of rapid growth. The success in preventing and combating epidemics, the food policy of the government, which made it possible to bring relief during famines and the maintaining of law and order by the central government, which prevented a continuation of arranging the disputes between the different states in Java by taking up arms, were all important factors in the decline of the death-rate.
This process of the decreasing death-rate in Java in this period cannot be demonstrated with the figures of the vital statistics. Death-rate figures sufficiently reliable to substantiate this presumption are not available.
Especially the deaths caused by infectious diseases among the population, were influenced by hygienic and other measures.
Data about epidemics in Java in former days lead us to believe that the death-rate must have decreased in the last century.
There are some historical data about the epidemics caused by variola, cholera asiatica, pestilence and influenza.
Variola.
That variola occurred endemically in Java in the 18th and 19th centuries is made very probable by the data from that period supplied by van den Burg, de Jonge, and van Gorkum, and by the fact that a start was made with vaccination in Java in 1804. Gradually the number of vaccinations was increased. Since 1856 there had been a systematic method under the supervision of the medical inspector to prevent further variola epidemics.
This was a regular non-compulsory vaccination and re-vaccination. A reorganisation was effected in 1919 because the method was not quite satisfactory, so that there were new epidemics in Java and the other islands, as had been pointed out by Borger in 1913.
Before the influence of the new system could be felt some more epidemics occurred after 1919 (Bandung 1919, Semarang 1922, Surakarta 1923). For the period 1912-1926 there are some further data.
In 1912 18,627 patients were observed in Java, especially in East-Java, 4,660 died. In 1913 the epidemic grew worse, especially in Central-Java, so that 37,190 patients were reported in the whole islands, 8,177 of whom died. In 1914 the epidemic decreased in Central- and East-Java, but increased in West-Java. In that year 16,058 patients were reported in the whole island, and 2,688 deaths occurred. In the course of 1915 (5,317 patients) the epidemic gradually decreased until 1922, in which year 1 237 were registered.
After a small flare-up in Surakarta in 1923 the epidemic rapidly dwindled.
After 1926 there was not any variola epidemic either in Java or elsewhere in Indonesia. However there were still sporadic cases nearly every year.
How much all this was counteracted by systematic vaccination appeared in 1947 when Indonesia was infected again probably from Malacca. It had not been possible to carry out the vaccination scheme because of the war, so that the number of non-vaccinated children gradually in creased. Via Riauw (Pulau Kundur) , and Sumatera (Padang, Palembang) the epidemic reached Java in 1948. In Djakarta it rapidly spread in the course of January 1949-March 1949, after which it died down. In this period the population of West-and Central-Java was also infected by variola, witness the cases in Bandung, Tjirebon, Semarang, Salatiga, Surabaja (1950), Banjuwangi (1950), and Basuki (1950). After this last epidemic and the performing of a systematic vaccination variola is no longer an important factor in the causes of death among the population of Java.
Cholera Asiatica.
In his detailed treatise on the history of cholera in Indonesia, Semmelink concluded that cholera certainly did not occur in Indonesia before 1816. After that Indonesia was ravaged by cholera many times in the course of the 19th century. In 1818 the pandemic which had started in India, reached Java, and in the course of the next few years this had serious consequences. Then the epidemics followed one upon another : 1849-1853, 1864-1865, 1890, 1896-1899, 1909-1913, 1915-1919. In 1919 there were still 6,864 cholera victims, 513 of whom in the D.I. Jogjakarta. Then there were 16 cholera patients in Djakarta in 1927 and one in 1928.
After 1928 Indonesia has been free from cholera, because of unknown favourable conditions. This fact cannot be explained from vaccination, hygienic- and isolation measures (v.Steenis 1951).
Pestilence.
In the exhaustive survey of geographical pathology by van der Burg, 1887, he never mentioned the occurrence of pestilence. Also van Gorkom in his treatise “Unhealthy Batavia, as it was and is” does not mention pestilence as one of the several causes of the high death-rate in this town in the 17th and 18th centuries. As there are not any clear indications that there were any serious pestilence epidemics in Java in earlier centuries, it is possible that Java was not infected by pestilence until the 20th century. The first well-known and carefully studied pestilence epidemic was in 1910. After an obviously increased number of deaths had been noticed in south Malang in the last few months of 1910, the first pestilence case was diagnosed for certain in Batu near Malang on March 27,1911. It was also found in Surabaja and the regions surrounding this port in 1911. Having probably arrived at East-Java and Madura in the course of 1911-1915. In 1916 pestilence also occurred in the port of Semarang as in the city of Jogjakarta. From 1918-1928 pestilence raged as an epidemic in ;the province of Central-Java, viz. In Wonoboso(1919), Jogjakarta (1922). and in many desas on the slopes of the mountains Sumbing, Sendoo, Merbabu, and Merapi. Also the coastal towns of Pekalongan, Rembang, and Tegal appeared to infected.
After the epidemic in Central -Java had decreased in 1926 and in the succeeding years, a pestilence epidemic started in West-Java in the Preanger area in 1925-1935.
The coastal town of Tjirebon and the city of Djakarta had appeared to be infected as early as 1922. In 1934 a systematic and effective vaccination was started with the Otten-vaccin, so the epidemic decreased and gradually stopped.
In the period 1911-1940 pest epidemics cost 200,000 human lives in Java.
In the area of the D.I. Jogjakarta pestilence had occurred especially on the slopes of Merapi since 1918 (the present day Sleman area). The North-West part of the Southern mountains, the city of Jogjakarta, and in the small town of Kota-Gede. Especially in the twenties there was a serious pestilence epidemic in the D.I. Jogjakarta, which gradually decreased in the course of the years without a systematic vaccination having taken place.
In 1934 there was a small-scale lung-pestilence epidemic in central Gunung Kidul. Sporadic cases occurred in 1935-1938 in the city of Jogjakarta, where housing was bad, and about 80% of the houses in the central quarters of the town were considered to be dangerous as a possible pestilence nidus by the Pestilence Prevention Service. In 1935 there were two small epidemics in the city of Jogjakarta.
There has been a focus in the D.I.Jogjakarta, not quite disappeared yet, in ;the area of the ketjamatans Kota Gede, Berbah, and Prambanan, the fringe directly east of the city of Jogjakarta.
In the revolution years 1944-1950 there was a new flare-up, of this focus in the D.I. Jogjakarta. In 1944-1955 there was an epidemic in all parts of the D.I. Jogjakarta, which was worst in 1948-1950. The data known about this epidemic are to be found in chapter IX, §11.
There have been no more cases of pestilence since the Gunung-Kidul and Imogiri areas have become free from it in 1955.
Influenza.
The influenza pandemic which came over practically the whole world, after the first world war, raged throughout Java with great severity and caused a great increase of the death-rate in 1918. In November 1918 the death-rate rose from 20% tot 160%. In the course of 1919 it decreased from 50% in January to 20% in September. Also in 1957 there was a small epidemic in Java which made few victims
he suppression of epidemics and endemic diseases such as malaria and yaws cannot but have had its influence on the death-rate in Java. However this does not follow clearly from the registration figures. The death-rate figures we could find about the subject were collected in table V-1.
Table V – 1
Death-rate of the population of Java and Madura in
the period 1885 – 1940 according to the civil registration
1 Detailed figures of this period in table V-6.
In this period occurred the influenza-epidemic.
2 Computed with the census figures 1930 of the total
population and supposing an annual increase of 1.7%.
3 Id., supposing an annual increase of 1.5%.
These figures are from the annual reports and surveys published by the Civil Medical Service, later called Civil Health Service. They are not convincing as there are no proofs that registration was complete in the years 1885 – 1940, so that there are various explanations for the variations in the death-rates registered, but deficient registration must be one of the most important. The death-rates were published regularly in the annual reports of the Medical Service as they were looked upon as not too deficient. The birth-figures were never thought to be worthy of publication, being far too incomplete and of little importance (Scheltema, 1926; v. Gelderen, 1937).
This difference in appreciation of birth- and death-figures is caused by the methods used. Seldom did parents themselves have their child registered, this was practically always done by the village-clergyman (kajim), who once a week informed the village-registrar,(tjarik) of the births and deaths. The latter saw to further administration and reported to the office of the Health Service. Every week the data were collected and written up on a week-card. Hence this method of registration was called the week-card system.
In the case of deaths the kajim himself performed the rituals required, hence knew about most of the deaths. In the case of births people could do without the kajim, if at least no slametan was given; so most births he heard about indirectly. For this reason the death figures were looked upon as more reliable than the birth-figures. This method of registration depends to a great extent on the interest and accuracy of the kajim, Mostly he remembered births and deaths without writing them down, so that inaccuracies occurred through forgetfulness and mistakes. Almost all the data for 1885-1940 were acquired in this way. Only those for Central-Java were obtained as described in the preceding chapter, when a death-certificate was issued for every death. Hence this method is called the certificate system. In 1935 it was applied in the regency Banjumas for the first time, and in the following years in other parts of the province of Central-Java. So a very small part of the figures were obtained according to the certificate-system.
About India more convincing details about the importance of the decreasing death-rate for the population-growth are available. The figures are from Kingsley Davis’s publication: The population of India and Pakistan(1951).
Davis computed the crude death-rate of the Indian population for the six decades of 1881 – 1941 by means of the life tables based on the census data. The crude death-rate figures, the annual natural increase figures, and the data about epidemics and famines are shown in table V-2. (See next page).
Here Davis remarked that the oldest figures are less reliable than the more recent. From 1880 until 1920 there was a high death-rate of 40-50 per 1000 inhabitants, whereas a clear decrease took place after 1920.
this explains the rapid growth of the Indian population after 1920. A rather constant high birth-rate and a decreasing death-rate causes an annual increase of the population. It was especially the measures taken against and the prevention of famines and epidemics that lowered
Table V - 2.
Crude death-rate of the population of India 1881 – 1941
in relation to famines and epidemics
the death-rate. After 1900 there had not been any considerable famine until 1942, because relief measures were sufficient. In 1943 there was a great famine in Bengal owing to wartime conditions (failing transport, inflation), which caused preventive measures to became insufficient.
The scale of pestilence epidemics decreased in 1900-1940, but epidemics did occur.
Variola epidemics had already been reduced before 1900 and deaths of variola gradually decreased even further after 1900. Not until 1920 did cholera epidemics decease. From these Indian figures the influence of preventive measures against epidemics and famine becomes clear.
Smith describes the natural increase in Malaya after 1900 as a similar result of a decreasing death-rate. During the Japanese occupation the margin between the birth- and death-rates narrowed to widen again afterwards. The death-rates was lowered by malaria control, inoculations, sanitation, and public health measures. Most obvious was the decrease of the death-rate in the least developed states on the West coast-regions, looked upon as regular death-traps as recently as 40 years age. The birth-rate remained largely the same. With a deficient birth-registration, birth-rates from 36 to 47.1% were found in the former Federated Malay States in 1921 – 1948.
this is the same course of development as was observed in Europe in the 19th century. For the West-European countries the decline of the birth-rate and death-rate can be shown from the available registration figures.
Through many hygienic measures such as vaccination, improvement of housing, an improved drinking-water supply, and medical care, an adequate destruction of refuse, and improved nutrition, the death-figures went down in European countries. For instance the population of England and Wales multiplied threefold between 1700 and 1850. the death-rate amounting to 25% in periods without epidemics and disasters decreased, whereas the birth-rate did not go down until later, and much more slowly, so that a great increase of the population resulted. The development in Europe can be seen from the data in table V – 3. see next page
Here the average annual birth-and death-figures have been collected of some ten West-European countries for the period 1861-1954. From these figures appears an appreciable decrease of deaths and births. For these countries the decline of death-rate in the period 1861-1910 was 18-44% of the number of deaths in 1861-70. In France and Spain, the decrease was about 20%, while in the Netherlands it was more than 40% of the ;number of deaths in 1861-70. Birth-figures decreased much less rapidly in the period 1861-1910; the decrease of births in the course of these 50 years amounts to 8-19% of the number of births per 1000 inhabitants for the period 1861-1870: Only in France, England, and Belgium the decrease was slightly greater, but nowhere was it more than 25% of the annual number of births in the period 1861-1870.
Not until the period 1911 – 1954 we see a great decline of the birth-rate. In 1954 in these ten countries the decline of the birth-rate amounted from 39% to 58% of the number of births in the period 1861-1870. The decline of the birth-rates came some decennial after the decline of the death-rates of these countries.
The present-day death-rate of the population in D.I. Jogjakarta.
For our guidance in the matter of the present-day mortality-rate of the populating of the D.I. Jogjakarta are available in the first
Table V – 3a
Birth-rate in ten European countries during the period 1861-1954.
The decline during the period 1861-1910 and 1861-1954 is in
percentage of the birth-rate of the period 1861-1870
Table V - 3b
Death-rate in ten European countries during the period 1861-1954.
The decline during the period 1861-1910 and 1861-1954 is in
percentage of the death-rate of the period 1861-1870
‘) concerns in the period 1952-1954 federal Germany
place the death-rates registered. For the period 1952 – 1956 they are as follows:
Table V – 4
Crude death-rate of the population in D.I. Jogjakarta 1952-1956
per 1,000 of the mid-year population
(according to the data of civil registration)
The figures are all low, the death-rates are based on a population-figure which is probably too small. This error in the computation made all the indices a little higher. The highest figure is that for Bantul in 1953: 15.9%. We have the impression that they are all to low. This suggests itself when we look at the death-rate of the ketjamatans.
Here we see that the margin of variation is even greater than that of the kabupatens, which, indeed, does not enhance our confidence in them.
A variation from 3.8% to 23% in which the highest figure is six times greater than the lowest cannot be probable. In the kabupatens the death-figures vary form 7.6% to 15.9% for the period 1952-1956.
The degree of deficiency in the registration is difficult to assess, That in the kabupaten Gunung Kidul 24% of the death-rates should be lower than 7% is highly improbable, because a death-rate under 7% is the lowest ever registered anywhere. When we compare the death-rates found in the kabupaten Gunung Kidul with the death-rates of European countries with a very accurate registration of births and deaths, which can dispose of very reliable birth- and death-rates of European countries with a very accurate registration of births and deaths, which can dispose of very reliable birth- and death-rate figures, we make a mistake if we do not take age-gradation into account. The population of Java and the D.I. Jogjakarta is very young as we saw in chapter 3, so that the older age-groups are relatively small. The population is accurately know, so that the death-figure can be further analysed into specific death-figures for the various age-groups. Also a standardized death-rate can be computed of a so-called standard population to make possible a comparison of the deaths among the population for various years. We have no such details at our disposal of the population of the D.I Jogjakarta, so that an accurate comparison is out of the question.
The specific death-rate becomes smaller and smaller in the first few months of life in European countries, and is very small at the ages 10-15. After the 15th year it increases gradually, to go up after the 50th year especially. It is particularly the number of deaths in the older age-groups which determines the crude death-rate in European countries. Thus, France with a relatively old population has a death-rate of 12.1% for 1954, and the Netherlands of 7% with a younger population. This in contrast with the population of Java, where it is deaths among infants and toddlers that have the greatest influence on the crude death-rate.
If we were to apply the specific death-figures of a European country to a country with large-size younger age-groups, such as the D.I. Jogjakarta, the death-rates computed like this would certainly be lower than the death-rates in European countries. The death-rates of the four European countries with the lowest death-rates, which were under 9% in 1951 – 1954 and among the lowest in the world, are shown in table V-5.
Table V – 5.
The four European countries with the lowest
death-rates in the period 1951 – 1954.
In most European countries death-rates varied from 10 to 13% in 1954. So if the death-rates registered in the kabupatens Gunung Kidul and Kulon Progo vary from 3-6%. this can only be explained from a very deficient registration. In Gunung Kidul the population depends for its nutrition on poor-quality food, and medical-mindedness is only superficial.
In this area occur seasonal famines in the months December-February nearly every year. (Cf. Chapter XI). A death-rate of 3-6% does not fit into the picture of the local circumstances.
Deficient registration both of births and of deaths probably occurs in a worse degree in the kabupaten Gunung Kidul than in the other kabupatens. The geographic situation may be one of the causes of this.
Another cause may be some unconcern to vital statistics, because the hard and difficult struggle for life in this region raises other and more vital matters.
The mountainous country impedes transport between the dukuhs and kelurahans to a greater extent than do the plains of Sleman, Bantul and south Kulon Progo, a factor which will also hamper registration in Gunung Kidul more than in the other regions of the D.I. Jogjakarta. Deficient registration of deaths makes it difficult for us to estimate the probable death-rate of the present-day population of the D.I. Jogjakarta.
It appeared to be possible to study other data about the population of the D.I. Jogjakarta, since many data had been preserved. Those for the period 1912-1936 are shown in table V-6.
Table V – 6.
Crude death-rate of the population of D.I. Jogjakarta
during the period 1912 – 1936
(Between brackets the death-rate of the whole population of Java of that year is given).
How difficult it is to draw any conclusions from these figures appears from the death-rates for the period 1920-1930 of the city of Jogjakarta. As a census was taken both in 1920 and in 1930, it was possible to check the administrative figures which had always been the basis of the computation of birth- and death-figures. This is done in table V– 7. (See next page.)
Here the death-rates are computed from the population-and death-figures of the Civil Registration and also from the figures of the census in the city of Jogjakarta. From 1920 to 1930 the number of inhabitants increased from 94,254 to 138,755.
The increase of the population appeared to be 47.2% according to the census figures of 1920 and 1930 i.e. An annual increase of almost 4%. The increase was distributed equally over the years of this period.
The same percentage was also used to compute the number of inhabitants of the town for the years 1931-1935. On comparing the two lists of figures we always find the statements from the administration to be from 3.6% to 31.3% lower than the death-rates computed with the census figures.
Table V – 7
Crude death-rate of the population of the town
Jogjakarta during the period 1912 – 1935,
according to the civil registration and
computed with the census figures
1) Correction after publication of the result of census 1920 and 1930
This great discrepancy leads us to assume that there was insufficient administrative contact between the population and the chief of the town district.
The death-rates based on these census-data no doubt have some value, if only because they are the most reliable that are available.
There is an obvious downward tendency during this period (from 50% to 16%).
If we assume the registration of the total number of deaths to be incomplete, the death-rates for all the years must be higher. As the degree of deficiency will differ from one year to another, the significance of the figures consists in this that they are an approximate indication of the death-rate of the city of Jogjakarta for this period.
The 1930 census made it clear that there was a considerable immigration to the city of Jogjakarta from the surrounding regions. The entry of many unmarried grown-ups will have had some influence on the death-figure, as infant-mortality dominates the death-figure, There are but few data about deaths among the rural population in the D.I. Jogjakarta in the period before the second world war. In some ketjamatans a first trial was given to registration on the certificate-system. Two of the ketjamatans where the new system had been introduced after 1929, and had appeared to be the most reliable, were Mlati to the north-west, and Kasihan south-west of the town and bordering on it.
Table V – 8.
Crude death-rate of the population in the ketjamatans
Mlati and Kasihan during the period 1927-1934
This shows the data of these two ketjamatans for the period 1927-1934. At the time there was not any compulsory post mortem examination in these regions. In both there was little malaria, but they were infected with ancylostomiasis and yaws. The statement by the tjamat gave a proper estimate of the number of people, as appeared from the 1930 census. The difference between the administrative statement and the census figure was much smaller than that in the city of Jogjakarta, so that registration appeared to be reliable in these regions. Those parts of the reports of the Medical Inspection in the D.I. Jogjakarta dealing with death-registration note that in the parts farthest from the city registration was more deficient than elsewhere.
Especially in Gunung Kidul and in Kulon Progo death-registration was looked upon as incomplete.
As the death-rates of the population in the D.I. Jogjakarts, collected in table V-6, are based on the number of inhabitants in the census of 1920 and in that of 1930, which were reliable figures, we may conclude from these data that the death-rate must have been considerably higher than the death-rates mentioned in table V-6.
In the southern part of Kulon Progo exceptionally high death-rates occurred for years at a stretch. Hardly anywhere in the whole daerah outside the city of Jogjakarta did the death-rate exceed 25% after 1925. Only in the southern part of Kulon Progo were death-rates computed of over 30% sometimes approaching 50%. This high mortality among the population can probably be explained from the periodical explosive malaria epidemics. In these regions malaria occurs chronic endemically, but occasionally the number of patients shows a sudden increase, which cannot fail to result in an increase in the number of deaths.
Another possibility to approximate the death-rate is to compute it from other reliable figure. These are only available for the decade 1920-1930. for the population of the D.I. Jogjakarta. From comparison of the 1920- to the 1930 figures it appears that Indonesian population of the D.I.Jogjakarta increased from 1,270,594 to 1,538,868 that is 21.1%. As for the reliability of the census figures for 1920, the census office gave to understand in 1930 that it is not nearly sure that the presumption that the 1920-figures are too low is well founded.
The increase of the Indonesian population in the D.I. Jogjakarta for 1920-1930 amounts to an annual average of 1.9%.
The Chinese group, in 1930 12,640 and in 1958 13,165 is not taken into account, neither are the Europeans, In 1930 there were some 7000, in 1956 a few dozen Europeans living in the town of Jogjakarta. The average annual increase percentage of the other Javanese provinces were as follows: (See next page table V-9).
In chapter 2 emigration in D.I. Jogjakarta appeared to surpass immigration. The increase will be a natural increase, because the number of births surpassed that of deaths. In a previous chapter we concluded that the birth-figure was probably 40% or above. It follows
Table V – 9
Population increase of the Indonesian population
in Java during the period 1920 – 1930
therefore that the annual population increase of 1.9% points to an annual percentage of deaths of 21% or above for the period of 1920-1930.
In the literature about the population problem in Java occur some other data about annual increase of the population.
J. van Gelderen (1937) estimated the birth-rate of the Javanese population at 38%, the death-rate at 22% , and thus arrived at a natural annual increase of about 1.6% in the pre-war years.
H.de Meel (1951) estimated the natural annual increase of the Javanese population in Central_Java during the period 1930-’37 at about 1.5%
Wertheim (1955) supposed the rise in birth- and death-figures in Java for the period 1930-1940 to be most probably due to an annual increase of 1.7% or more instead of the 1.5% used as a basis for computations.
N. Keyfitz (1953) estimated the annual increase of the Javanese population in these present days at 1.7%
If we also start out from a birth-rate of 40% for the total population of Java, then the above estimates of the annual increase presuppose an annual death-rate of 23-25%. A death-rate of 23-25%, when compared with some reliable data for towns in Central-Java, does not seem improbable at all. Of a number of municipalities where autopsy took place and no corpses could be buried before they had been examined by an official of the Plague-Fighting Service, the death-figures were rather exactly know. They are very reliable because of a rigid control, and because infringement of this law was punished by imprisonment. In three of the municipalities mentioned below there was no pestilence epidemic in 1929-1930. Only in Magelang district almost 900 persons died of pestilence in 1920-1930.
The following table shows the death-rates of these towns.
Table V – 10
Crude death-rates of four towns in Central-Java in the period 1929-1931.
In these towns was an compulsory autopsy in this period.
Death were computed from the population-figure according to the 1930 census.
Liem Tjay Tie computed an average death-rate of 29% in some ketjamatans of Tasikmalaya (West-Java) 1935-1937. In these ketjamatans the autopsy law was applied, so that this figure is rather reliable.
Kündig’s investigations in some ketjamatans of Menado in 1930-1932 were already mentioned in the chapter on the number of births. In the five ketjamatans concerned the registered death-rates were as follows:
Table V – 11
Crude death-rate of the population in 5 ketjamatans
of Menade (1930-1932) according to A. Kündig
Computed with the total numbers of inhabitants according to census 1930.
He noted
Airmadidi 1930/1931 much bacillary dysentery and enteritis among children
Tondano 1930 simultaneous epidemics of measles and bacillary dysentery
1932 influenza in July
Kakas 1932 influenza epidemics in May and June
Langoan 1931 influenza and bacillary dysentery epidemics in June.
Infantmortality varied in particular from one quarter of a year to another. The epidemics occurring made their victims chiefly among the lower age-groups. In view of the exactitude of the investigations the figures of Küundig must be looked upon as very reliable; the death-rates will approach real mortality among the populations concerned very closely. If, however, one does not want to depend entirely on data of about twenty-five years ago, it is possible to look for data concerning a population which can be well compared to that of D.I. Jogjakarta.
Here the favourable circumstance occurs that in the province of Central-Java, where registration according to the certificate system was first started, there are now some areas that have more reliable figures about births and deaths than the D.I. Jogjakarta became a separate daerah. However the population of the D.I. Jogjakarta and that of the province of Central-Java can be well compared a s regards:
1. The structure of agrarian society.
2. The history, culture, and language they have in common.
3. The race of the population.
4. The distribution of ages among the population as far as it was know in 1930 and at
the moment of the general elections in 1955.
5. A similar hygienic standard of living conditions
6. A lack of great epidemics in the period 1952 – 1956.
7. An approximately equal standard of medical care.
The death-figure among the population in Central-Java is better known than in the D.I. Jogjakarta. Registration is in many kabupatens less deficient. Going over the death-rates of the 28 kabupatens of Central-Java, we find in 1952: 2 kabupatens
1953: 4 ”
1954: 4 ”
1955: 6 ”
1956: 7 ”
having a crude death-rate of over 20%.
The data are to be found in table V-12.
Table V – 12
Review of the death-rates of the population in some
kabupaten of Central – Java during the period 1952-1956
In west – Java were in 1952 two kabupaten and in 1953 and 1955 one kabupaten with a death-rate above 20%
Civil Registration in kabupaten Wonosobo is looked upon as practically complete by the Ministry of Health authorities. Here a death-rate of 22% was registered. This kabupaten being much less densely populated than the D.I. Jogjakarta (357 inhabitants per k.m.² and 637 inhabitants respectively), and being much more prosperous because of the tobacco grown here, it is very probable that the death-rate in the D.I. Jogjakarta is higher than the Wonosobo-figure. A lower death-rate is improbable, among other things because of the fact that the kabupaten Gunung Kidul has every year its seasonal famine(cf. chapter XI). When the previous harvest has been used up and the next is not yet ripe. The population is threatened and ravaged by a shortage of foodstuffs both qualitatively and quantitatively. The fertile areas of the D.I. Jogjakarta are more densely populated than those of Wonosobo; which entails its specific difficulties for the food-supply, too.
The population in the D.I. Jogjakarta are living under less favourable conditions than the people of Wonosobo.
We considered:
- that the probable death-rate of the Indonesian population in Java during the decade 1920-1930 was about 24%
- That in regions of Indonesia about which trustworthy pre-war death-rate-figures are available, these death-rates are 22% and above.
- That the probable death-rate of the Indonesian population in the D.I. Jogjakarta in the decade 1920-1930 was about 21%.
In the decade 1920-1930 the populartion in the D.I. Jogjakarta lived under more favourable economic and agratian conditions. A number of sources of income of the population have disappeared in the years after 1942. The crop of the arable lands are nowadays less favourable that 35 years ago. These alterations will have their influence on the present day death-rate of the population in the D.I. Jogjakarta.
That the death-rate in the kabupaten Wonosobo, where is nowadays a satisfying civil registration, varied during the period 1952-1956 from 20%, to 22.5%.
We estimate the present death-rate of the D.I. Jogjakarta at about 22% in view of the above data.